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#1 2018-12-01 03:07:20

linchao
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A Chiefs’ 2018 regular-season record prediction

Here we are again — the start of a new NFL season!Over the past four years http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.c … -authentic , I have made predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs’ regular season-record and I’ve been quite successful (or lucky... yeah, lucky is probably the better word).In three of the past four predictions, I have gotten the record exactly right, and the other year I was a game off. Here are the predictions from the years prior if you’re curious to see them:2014201520162017Now that you know I’m not a liar, let’s see if I can get lucky again in 2018.How we do thisI’m going to use the same prediction metric as I have in the years past. I understand I was spoiled with Alex Smith’s consistency, and making a prediction for Mahomes will have much more variance. This means it’s going to be much more difficult to nail a Mahomes prediction, but that’s not going to stop me from trying.Anyway, the method we’ve used in the past is the following: Observe Reid’s record vs. playoff and non-playoff teams, use common sense to predict the current schedule’s playoff teams, and then use the records from prior years to build a prediction.I have chosen to change things a little this season with how I make the prediction. Last season, we used Smith and Reid’s record to build our prediction. This year we’re still using Smith and Reid’s body of work, but we will also include Reid’s first years with Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick as starters to help guide our predictions.Here are Reid’s records for the above years against playoff teams:Reid vs Playoff TeamsYearWLWIN%YearWLWIN%The important value we’re looking at is the 0.389 win percentage vs. playoff teams. We’ll use this number later.Now let’s see how Reid has done against non-playoff teams during the same seasons.Reid vs Non-Playoff TeamsYearWLWIN%YearWLWIN%Andy Reid has been phenomenal against non-playoff teams. A lot of fans like to complain about Reid blowing games vs. poor competition, but the opposite is true. Reid has been great vs teams who don’t make the playoffs.Now the last piece — a prediction for playoff teams on the Chiefs’ schedule in 2018. I break the teams down into three groups: Yes, Maybe Womens Sammy Watkins Jersey , and No.Yes = The team will probably make the playoffsMaybe = The team could make the playoffsNo = I don’t see this team making the playoffsChiefs 2018 ScheduleOpponentPlayoffs?OpponentPlayoffs?Now, let’s fix some issues with these predictions real quickly...To start we have 10 maybes, two yes teams and four no teams. However, the AFC West and NFC West can’t possibly have four teams make the playoffs. At best, there should be one yes team, one maybe team, and two no teams for each of those divisions.This updates the numbers to be three yes teams, five maybe teams, and eight no teams.In years prior, we’ve taken the maybes and split them evenly into yes and no playoff teams. That leaves us a final mixture of seven yes and nine no.The predictionUsing the likely playoff and non-playoff teams as well as the regular-season records from above, we can finally make a prediction for the Chiefs’ regular season:( 7 * 0.389 ) + ( 9 * 0.789 ) = 2.723 + 7.101 = 9.824 winsSo my prediction for the 2018 Chiefs is 10-6.I have never liked predictions at 10-6. I feel like it’s a generic prediction, but if Mahomes goes 10-6 in his first season I would be quite pleased.What are your thoughts on the 10-6 prediction? What’s your record prediction? Drop it in the comments section and we can check up on it next year when we do the whole thing over again. This is part two of a three-part weekly film analysis on the performance of Patrick Mahomes. Part one here.It’s the midway point of the 2018 season and Clark Hunt was in town this week to deliver his state of the Chiefs address. Of course, he is clearly satisfied with what is happening currently in Kansas City. His 7-1 team has arguably the MVP of the league and best young asset in football, Patrick Mahomes.The proof of those two statements mounts every week. It’s an embarrassment of highlight riches for a fan base finally getting the taste of a franchise quarterback experience. Chiefs fans are wiping their nose with $100 bills. The standard for what amazes is higher than in any other city right now. You’re experiencing rare displays of arm talent each and every week. I hope we never get numb to them. This week is litmus test for that because there’s a throw that hasn’t made rounds yet that absolutely deserves to be.Something specialWe’ll start this week with something special. The situation and moment is not nearly as glamorous as some other throws Mahomes has delivered http://www.thechiefsfootballauthentic.c … -authentic , but this should be up there with all the ones you’re thinking about right now.Denver is in a split safety look and the Chiefs are in a five-man protection with Spencer Ware free releasing on a swing route. Travis Kelce is running an out route and attacks safety Will Parks before breaking out. Mahomes is facing pressure from Shaquille Barrett, who is free on a twist. He doesn’t get a chance to step into this throw completely as he’s hit on the delivery. Regardless of the pressure, Mahomes shows some of the best anticipation he has all year, releasing the ball right as Kelce is getting out of his break. The arm talent to deliver this ball 20 air yards despite everything going on is rare. Even without following through on his throw, Mahomes places this ball perfectly to Kelce in stride and between a triangle of defenders. Denver had a great call on a pressure that got home and it didn’t matter. Mahomes flat out beat it with his rare abilities. We get moments like this every week. Panning for gold isn’t supposed to be this easy.It wasn’t the first time that game he delivered through pressure and contact.This is yet another fantastic throw. Mahomes delivers a strike in the red zone as he’s feeling backside pressure and is actually hit as he’s releasing it. It doesn’t affect the ball enough to be inaccurate—Mahomes arm talent gets the ball through the pressure. Lesser velocity might’ve forced this ball to be altered, but not with Mahomes here. Where the Chiefs were on the field is important to this too. The margin for error slims down the closer you get to the end zone.Something smartSpeaking of red zone efficiency...The Broncos are showing a middle field closed coverage shell with Kelce flanked out in the boundary in a 2x2 formation. He will be running a post. Mahomes is going to trust Kelce in this situation 100 times out of 100. He’s the best tight end in football.To maintain the window to throw this ball, Mahomes needs to keep the middle-field safety from driving on Kelce. In order to keep that window, Mahomes gives eyes and his shoulder to the field to hold the safety before whipping his eyes and hips around at the exact right time to deliver a strike to Kelce on the front line of the end zone. The safety is not able to close to contest the throw in time and the Chiefs score a touchdown.Decision making that close to the goal line has to be quick. Being able to process the information pre-snap, work his eyes and shoulders to maintain a window, and the timing to flip back to give Kelce a chance to score is exceptional work from a young quarterback. It’s becoming common, but these plays need to continue to be appreciated.


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